Industrial Cluster: Reduction Of Cotton Planting Area In Northern India

The cotton planting area in northern India may be reduced by 20-30% next year, because the pests in previous years have made farmers lose confidence in this commercial crop. This year, farmers deliberately postponed the planting of crops for 15-20 days to avoid losses caused by insect attacks similar to those that occurred during monsoon rains in late August and early September.

Satish Kumar, a trader from Bashinda (Punjab), said, "Farmers are disappointed with the repeated insect damage to cotton, so they prefer sorghum, Yugu and mung beans. They reduce the cotton planting area, but do not completely abandon cotton."

Farmers changed their strategy this year, delaying cotton planting for about 15-20 days to avoid losses caused by insect attacks. Industry insiders said that if the crops were in the flowering stage, the rainfall in late August and early September would not cause losses. If the rainfall pattern remains unchanged, cotton will be in the flowering stage and will not be damaged by rainfall.

According to market sources, so far, about 50-60% of cotton planting has been completed. Due to the delay of sowing, the sowing work will continue until the middle of June this year. Generally, cotton planting starts in the middle of April every year, but farmers only start planting in the first week of May this year.

Last year, 665000 hectares were sown in Haryana, 169000 hectares in Punjab and 791000 hectares in Rajasthan. The total sown area in northern India is 1.625 million hectares. According to the data of Indian Cotton Association (CAI), the total output is estimated to be 4.682 million bales, with an average yield of 484.44 kg per hectare. From 2018 to 2022, the normal cotton planting area in Haryana is 688000 hectares, that in Punjab is 268000 hectares, that in Rajasthan is 630000 hectares, and that in northern India is 1586000 hectares.

In 2022/23, the sown area in Haryana is 649000 hectares, that in Punjab is 249000 hectares, and that in Rajasthan is 683000 hectares. The 1.581 million hectare cotton field in northern India produces a total of 4.219 million bales of cotton, with an average yield of 437.60 kg per hectare.

Higher than the expected precipitation in rainy season in previous years

The latest forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that the future rainy season will have better precipitation than normal, which may come to Kerala on June 1 this year. IMD predicts that the rainfall in June is 92% - 108% compared with the long-term average level. According to La Nina, the rainy season may change the pattern in the next few months. Rainfall may fall in Delhi on June 29 and Rajasthan on July 7.

The department said that the southwest monsoon rainfall of the country during June September may be 106% of the long-term average, and the model error is/- 4%. Although the rainfall in the central and southern parts of the Indian Peninsula will be higher than the normal level, the rainfall in northeast India will be lower than the normal level, and the rainfall in northwest India is expected to maintain the normal level. 105% to 110% of LPA is considered "above normal".