Stock Market: The Turning Point Of The Property Market And The Starting Point Of The Stock Market

The Chinese have two big investment channels, either to buy stocks or to buy their own houses, and to buy gold and buy other buildings like other ones can not afford too much money.

There are three kinds of funds in the market. There are specialized speculators, specialized stocks, and two funds for market movement.

Now the volume of A shares has been very low, only 4 or 500 billion a day.

Once there is capital coming in, the market index will be increased by 300 points, and the market trend will be clearer. At this time, many investors will rush to add positions because many people are in low positions.

As far as we know, many private businesses now have less than 10% warehouses, and the average position of the entire private sector is 30%. There are many funds waiting for the paction.

On Thursday, the market will wait for the first time in the area.

Driven by the surge, the Shanghai Composite Index has hit a new high this year. Today's trend further supports my previous view that the best wave of rebound this year is expected at the end of the year. Investors should actively layout high quality blue chips to meet the cross year trend.

Of course, the main characteristic of the "slow bull" market is slow. In the first half of the year, I had a simile, comparing the market situation to "grinding the human goblin".

Then, in such a market, investors need to change their space with time. By holding high quality blue chips, stock prices will slowly rise over time and earn excess returns.

If investors frequently make band, stir up some subjects and concepts, they will lose more.

Like 500 rebounded this year, many people lose money, that's all.

The prediction points may be more like fortune telling. We should make strategic analysis. We should not be like fortune tellers, but more effective investment strategies based on the current market, and propose countermeasures.

At the present time, it is still a good time to enter, because the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has less than thirteen times price earnings ratio, which is almost 11.5 times the historical low point at 1664, and has just risen 10% from the bottom.

And at present, the positive factors gradually increase, for example, Shenzhen Hong Kong through the opening of the pension may enter the market in the year, and even rumors that A shares in the year to join MSCI progress, these favorable factors to cash in, the market will have a good rebound opportunities, of course, blue chip as the main index, the index is expected to rebound about 10%, there are 200 to 300 points rebound, next year's bullish 30%.

Next year, it may rebound to 4000 points, which is expected to rebound next year.

Of course, this is only a prediction. It can not be so precise. The trend is more important.

Now, many leading institutions are actively adjusting their positions.

From the theme stocks, junk stocks to blue chips, it is guaranteed that the stocks held will be of high quality.

After the stock market crash, everyone has learned a lesson. In the first half of last year, everyone was saying, "the wind is coming, the pigs can fly." in the second half of the year, it became "the wind stopped and the pigs fell down."

Really good stocks, even after the stock market crash will continue to rise, such as Vanke, Moutai, a record high, this is the so-called "bird", it has "wings".

The result of choosing a pig is that although the wind comes, it will fly to the sky, but I don't know when it will fall.

So we should choose the best "bird" instead of looking for "pigs" that may fly to heaven but don't know when to fall.

For the inflection point of the property market, this is absolutely no problem.

I wrote a report in September this year, suggesting the risks of the property market. I suggest investors stay away from the crazy property market and actively embrace high-quality blue chips.

Property market in September this year, there are obvious signs of peaking, many people buy houses because they are afraid to go to buy houses, rather than really need to buy a house.

Just like last year's stock market, many people do not know what the concept of stock speculation is, but we feel that everyone is making money.

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The second characteristic is that the leverage ratio of the property market is high. At present, the leverage ratio of China's property market is 2.5 times. The proportion of the original mortgage market is 40%, and its own capital is 60%. This year many people are adding leverage to buy a house, the ratio is reversed, and its own funds account for 40%, and the mortgage ratio is 60%.

And last May, the stock market was about 2.5 times leveraged, that is to say, the leverage ratio of the property market in September this year is the same as that of last year's stock market, 2.5 times.

Such a high leverage ratio is hard to sustain.

Third, the government can not let everyone go to the real estate market. Once the property market risks, there will be a nationwide financial crisis and systemic risks.

Therefore, in order to prevent this step, the government will certainly introduce many drastic measures to restrict borrowing and speculation and curb such insanity.

And during the national day, 20 cities issued strict restrictions on the purchase of loan measures, the property market has begun to appear volume and price down, the inflection point of the property market has been basically confirmed.